Tomorrow is the race that stops the Australian nation, and every Australian and their dog will have a way of picking who the winner is.

Every year, I tend to either get an autopick or follow what the top pundits say in the paper. Needless-to-say, I never ever win.

This year, I’ve done something different. In an attempt to be fact based, I looked back at the history of the race to get better at picking the winner. Here’s what I found…

1. Pick horses younger than seven years old

One glaring trend is that horses at or over 7 years of age simply don’t win. In the last 30 years, only 4 have won at 7, and none have won at 8 years or over. The most successful ages have been 4 and 5.

2. Pick the horse that won its last race

Another significant trend is that 11 of the 19 previous cup winners won a race immediately preceding the Melbourne Cup. There are a number in this year’s field that fit this description – so take note.

3. Pick Aussie horses, but Aussie jockeys don’t matter

Aussie and New Zealand trained horses dominate the cup in recent years. Only 5 winners have been based overseas, and only 1 have done it without a domestic lead-in run – Vintage Crop in 1993. The two internationals with the best run going in appears to be Simenon and Dandino – but both are 7 years old.

Australian-ness of the jockeys on the other hand, seems to be less significant. 3 of the last 7 haven’t been from this part of the world. Experts suggest that this is because Flemington conditions largely mimic that of the European racecourses – with its long straights. So it’s easy for foreigners to adapt.

4. Pick new horses, and stay away from favourites

Only 1 horse has improved their placing in a re-run in the past 23 years. In most cases, where the horse has increased weight for the re-run, they have failed to impress. This is true for all the re-entrants this year. So stay away.

Incidentally, the horse that has repeated success in recent memory was Makybe Diva. It is also the only favourite to win in the past 15 years. Favourites actually suck – only 32 have won in 151 years. They also don’t place well, with only 13 top 3 finishes in the last 35 years.

5. Pick blue and black silks

Another interesting stat is that dark blue and black silks dominates the winners in recent history. There are 13 out of the 24 in this year’s race. So while not the perfect indicator, it does cut the field in half.

And Pocketbook’s tip is…

So the tip, using the rules above, I’ve applied it to tomorrow’s field. It’s clear by these indicators – horse #10 – Fawkner is the likely winner. Dark blue silks, a good barrier, Australian horse that recently won its last race (Caulfield Cup). It’s also not too far off the lead in terms of odds.

To put money where our mouth is, The Pocketbook team has put down a $40 bet for Fawkner to win it all. Race 7, Flemington, 3pm tomorrow. Let’s go!

Best of luck with your bets! Play safe.

Bosco

Details on the vital statistics

#	Horse	Age	Bar.	Weight	Odds	Nat.	Silk	Last start	Last cup
1	DUNADEN	8yo	1	58.5kg	$26	France	Yellow	8	2011
2	GREEN MOON	7yo	10	57.5kg	$26	Ireland	Dark Blue	9	2012
3	RED CADEAUX	8yo	23	56.5kg	$41	Great Britain	Light Blue / Maroon	4	2011
4	SEA MOON	6yo	7	56.5kg	$15	Great Britain	Dark Blue	1	2012
5	BROWN PANTHER	6yo	6	55kg	$19	Great Britain	Light Blue	5	N/A
6	FIORENTE	6yo	5	55kg	$7	Ireland	Black	3	N/A
7	FORETELLER	7yo	15	55kg	$26	Great Britain	Green	4	N/A
8	DANDINO	7yo	4	54.5kg	$9	Great Britain	Yellow	2	N/A
9	ETHIOPIA	5yo	14	54.5kg	$71	Australia	Light Blue / Green	4	N/A
10	FAWKNER	6yo	8	54.5kg	$15	Australia	Dark Blue	1	N/A
11	MOURAYAN	8yo	19	54.5kg	$126	Ireland	Dark Blue	7	N/A
12	SEVILLE	6yo	9	54.5kg	$21	Germany	Dark Blue	7	N/A
13	SUPER COOL	4yo	13	54.5kg	$41	Australia	Blue / Red / White	5	N/A
14	MASKED MARVEL	6yo	2	54kg	$26	Great Britain	Dark Blue	0	N/A
15	MOUNT ATHOS	7yo	22	54kg	$8.50	Ireland	Grey	2	2012
16	ROYAL EMPIRE	5yo	11	54kg	$21	Ireland	Blue	2	N/A
17	VOLEUSE DE COEURS	5yo	21	54kg	$15	Ireland	Blue / Orange	1	N/A
18	HAWKSPUR	4yo	18	53.5kg	$13	Australia	White / Purple	7	N/A
19	SIMENON	7yo	12	53.5kg	$18	Ireland	Purple	3	N/A
20	IBICENCO	6yo	17	53kg	$61	Germany	Blue / Yellow	1	N/A
21	VEREMA	5yo	3	53kg	$12	France	Green	1	N/A
22	DEAR DEMI	4yo	16	51kg	$19	Australia	Blue / White	2	N/A
23	TRES BLUE	4yo	20	51kg	$19	Ireland	Black	1	N/A
24	RUSCELLO	5yo	24	50kg	$41	Ireland	Blue / Yellow	1	N/A